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Capital and Legal Structure 03/03/22
Description of the Company 03/03/22
Model and Valuation 03/03/22
Investment Discussion 03/03/22
Headline numbers from Friday’s release are strong, with the Gross Profit margin inflated by a reversal of the IAS 37 impact. Despite this reversal from Q1 23, the Gross Profit margin
Tesla are stopping production in their Berlin factory from Jan 29th to Feb 11th due to the disruption in the supply chain from the ongoing conflict in the
We have recently updated our model on Standard Profil, so post Q3 numbers, here is a short update.
Nothing in this set of numbers is going to change the fundamentals for Standard Profil. The business continues to make small progress, and we can
The Company released its Q3 numbers last night, ahead of its investor call next week. Headlines will be favourable, with EBITDA up to
Please find our updated analysis on Standard Profil here.
We didn’t update our model post-Q2 numbers as the actual numbers were in line with our model. There is a summary below but we are more focused on the upcoming quarters and fast-forwarding to FY25 when refinancing will be required. The business
Standard Profil released their Q2 numbers which are ahead of their guidance given earlier this year. On the back of the numbers and slightly better underlying
Please find our updated model here.
Following the release of Q1 numbers, we have re-examined our model in light of Standard Profil’s updated guidance. We have increased our revenue and EBITDA expectation, but we can’t match the Company’s guidance of
Standard Profil is holding their Q1 conference call at 1 pm today. This will be an upbeat call following the confirmation of the passthrough agreement with customers for
Standard Profil will hold their Q1 call on Wednesday at 1 pm, and we expect management to strike an upbeat tone on future revenue growth. This is
Standard Profil reported their Q1 numbers but they are largely impacted by the previously reported additional €15m of additional compensation received in
Please find our updated model here.
A short note following Standard Profil’s announcement last night, as we published after the Q4 results earlier this month. In line with our expectations that
Please find our updated analysis here.
In the absence of an agreement with the OEMs, it is very difficult to come to a concrete view on Standard Profil. As a reminder, Q4 guidance, given end of November was for a range
Standard Profil reported their Q4 and FY22 numbers over the weekend and will hold their conference call on Thursday at 1 pm UK time. The main headline
European Automotive sales in March are headline-grabbing but are flattered by the war and semiconductor-impacted March 2022 comparisons. However, it is the comparison to
The current strength in the after-sales market in the US is a result of production volumes at the OEMs. Again, we are hearing of further disruptions in
Please find our updated model here.
We maintain our 5% long position in Standard Profil's Senior Secured bond. At current prices, it generates a 26% YTM, but at 60%, this isn't really a yield story. We maintain our view that t
Standard Profil’s Q3 numbers highlight the continued issues with OEM production in Europe and the impact of raw material prices. Standard Profil has benefitted from ramp-ups in electric vehicle production, and,
Will two swallows a spring make? Car Registrations in EU/EFTA/UK are up for the second month in a row. Overall YTD volumes are still at -
VW have warned that global auto production will be at risk in FY23 if Russia fails to resume deliveries of natural gas through Nord Stream 1. This is
Some positive headlines this morning in the Automotive Industry but they need to be put into context. In August, European registrations finally
We issued our updated model post Q2 numbers last week. Yesterday the Company held their conference call and although we are projecting slightly lower sales and EBITDA than the Company guided for FY22 we are happy to
Please find our updated model here.
Standard Profil reports a 6.6x net leverage (or 8.8x pre- IFRS 5 EBITDA) leaving investors querying the next turn. The business has plenty of time with no maturity until 2025, amble time for the business to take advantage of its order book and in turn grow its EBITDA and cash generation. However,
Although the headlines surrounding Tesla focus on their Bitcoin sale and covid related shutdowns and supply issues, it should be noted that Tesla has managed to ramp up their
Headlines this morning show European new car sales lowest since 1996 but this should not come as a surprise. The manufacturers had repeatedly highlighted supply chain issues in H1 due to the Ukraine war coupled with ongoing chip shortages. This
Please find our updated model here.
Who would want to be an auto supplier? OEMs continue to suffer from supply shocks including chip shortages, Russo-Ukrainian war, Covid-19 lockdowns in China and
Please find our unchanged model here.
Already poor due to lack of semiconductors, volumes at some Automotive OEMs have taken a further knock from the closure of suppliers based in Russia and the Ukraine. We have been in particular concerned about
Please find our initiation on Standard Profil here.
While there remains some uncertainty surrounding production disruption at OEMs, we remain confident that the trajectory of OEM production
Hyundai released a positive outlook statement, increasing their production guidance due to expecting the global chip shortages to